Yes. Several things. The most recent David Verlander article scared me. A big part of the thesis is that they get their DoD contracts expanded in scope. Now David interviewed an ex-DoD laser specialist who expressed strong doubts with regards to AERG‘s technology. That was a deeply orange flag for me. Also, it was originally rumored 3 months or so ago that at least one new contract was imminent but so far: nada. I was scared this thing would trade very heavy and down to 50 cents on a sustained lack of newsflow or market selloff. So i pulled the plug for now.
Having said that: I would jump in again without hesitation on a large DoD contract announcement.
Thanks for the question. I think you are pointing out a weakness of mine: I don't sell ruthlessly enough, as these sub 1% position are mostly positions that started at 1% or slightly above and got decimated over time as they tanked but the portfolio value grew. In some cases, e.g. MOLY and NURS, they are highly speculative possible multibagger gambles where I couldn't resist to put a bit of money to work but have no conviction to justify bigger positions.
Well, if something quintuples it makes a difference even if it is only a 50 bps position. It is the equivalent of a 2% position that returns 100%, which I think most will agree, is a fantastic result. Actually it is even better cause it has bound less capital.
Also, if these begin to work, I would probably notice sooner than if I didn't have a position and that could lead to me shoving more money into them early enough to juice returns further.
Having said all of this, I do agree with your skeptical stance, cause I know that most sub 1% positions have cost me money over time.
SOC should be finishing up repairs right about now if the Jefferies timeline is right. Hydrotest should be getting rolling soon.
I'm not a crayon eating chart guy, but if we get a gap fill and it goes to $25 with no news or changes, I'm punting on more calls.
$SOC fam <3
Any material change in $AERG? That made you sell?
Yes. Several things. The most recent David Verlander article scared me. A big part of the thesis is that they get their DoD contracts expanded in scope. Now David interviewed an ex-DoD laser specialist who expressed strong doubts with regards to AERG‘s technology. That was a deeply orange flag for me. Also, it was originally rumored 3 months or so ago that at least one new contract was imminent but so far: nada. I was scared this thing would trade very heavy and down to 50 cents on a sustained lack of newsflow or market selloff. So i pulled the plug for now.
Having said that: I would jump in again without hesitation on a large DoD contract announcement.
Hope this helps.
Thanks
Why do you bother with <1% positions
Thanks for the question. I think you are pointing out a weakness of mine: I don't sell ruthlessly enough, as these sub 1% position are mostly positions that started at 1% or slightly above and got decimated over time as they tanked but the portfolio value grew. In some cases, e.g. MOLY and NURS, they are highly speculative possible multibagger gambles where I couldn't resist to put a bit of money to work but have no conviction to justify bigger positions.
No worries! Good response- my only challenge is even if these small positions multi bags, does it really move the needle on performance?
Well, if something quintuples it makes a difference even if it is only a 50 bps position. It is the equivalent of a 2% position that returns 100%, which I think most will agree, is a fantastic result. Actually it is even better cause it has bound less capital.
Also, if these begin to work, I would probably notice sooner than if I didn't have a position and that could lead to me shoving more money into them early enough to juice returns further.
Having said all of this, I do agree with your skeptical stance, cause I know that most sub 1% positions have cost me money over time.