I have a hard time seeing how it's anything less than 40 after oil flows. When you look at insider/institutional ownership (roughly 80% of shares held by people that get it if I had to guess, and probably won't sell at 40 or 50), short interest at 12% last time I checked, and options chain stuff, I wouldn't be surprised if it's more than 40.
I've got a question for you. Looking at SOC I see something that is either going to go +80% at some point over the next 12 months or go to very close to 0. It has me thinking, it does not make sense to play this via the commons at all. Does it not make sense to play this exclusively via Jan 26 or Jan 27 options with strikes between $20 and $30? Don't these have the same risk profile (total loss) with way more upside than a position in the commons?
I'm not sure I see the total loss case playing out. State government, county, and Trump admin all want this thing up and running. Say that something goes sideways and we get to the first production failure date with Exxon on March 1, 2026. What odds do you put on them taking the asset back or shopping it to another party? I have it as a snowball's chance in hell.
Also, what value do you put on a takings claim? All of these questions are worth asking but will be in the rearview mirror soon imo. I think oil flows in the next couple months, but I bought more calls today for what it's worth. Volatility has come down recently as volume dried up, and I think it's hard to go wrong with shares or calls. Most of my position is in shares and 27 LEAPS, but I don't think it will take that long for this to play out.
I saw several teeets on X suggesting that „after the events of last week“ a Q2 restart would be looking increasingly doubtful. Do you know what the people tweeting this might be referring to? The lawsuit of the Trump administration? Or was there sth else that I missed? And if it‘s the new lawsuit, I am wondering: would this really uphold production restart? It seems implausible to me. (Which is why I am guessing there must be other news that I missed?)
The brutal nature of Leverage in a bearish market, try focusing on adding a equal amount of short positions to balance out your longs. Or any other type of hedge if u continue using margin.
Thank you for the comment and advice. What would you say are the best ETFs to short at this point? Which ETFs is made up mostly of the biggest tariff/recession losers?
If Sable plays out like I think it will, Q2 should be more enjoyable.
Thank you. I surely hope so. What is your expectation of where it trades to in the weeks after production restart?
I have a hard time seeing how it's anything less than 40 after oil flows. When you look at insider/institutional ownership (roughly 80% of shares held by people that get it if I had to guess, and probably won't sell at 40 or 50), short interest at 12% last time I checked, and options chain stuff, I wouldn't be surprised if it's more than 40.
I've got a question for you. Looking at SOC I see something that is either going to go +80% at some point over the next 12 months or go to very close to 0. It has me thinking, it does not make sense to play this via the commons at all. Does it not make sense to play this exclusively via Jan 26 or Jan 27 options with strikes between $20 and $30? Don't these have the same risk profile (total loss) with way more upside than a position in the commons?
I'm not sure I see the total loss case playing out. State government, county, and Trump admin all want this thing up and running. Say that something goes sideways and we get to the first production failure date with Exxon on March 1, 2026. What odds do you put on them taking the asset back or shopping it to another party? I have it as a snowball's chance in hell.
Also, what value do you put on a takings claim? All of these questions are worth asking but will be in the rearview mirror soon imo. I think oil flows in the next couple months, but I bought more calls today for what it's worth. Volatility has come down recently as volume dried up, and I think it's hard to go wrong with shares or calls. Most of my position is in shares and 27 LEAPS, but I don't think it will take that long for this to play out.
Thanks again! The potential claim value in this scenario is a good aspect, I didn't think about that.
I saw several teeets on X suggesting that „after the events of last week“ a Q2 restart would be looking increasingly doubtful. Do you know what the people tweeting this might be referring to? The lawsuit of the Trump administration? Or was there sth else that I missed? And if it‘s the new lawsuit, I am wondering: would this really uphold production restart? It seems implausible to me. (Which is why I am guessing there must be other news that I missed?)
The brutal nature of Leverage in a bearish market, try focusing on adding a equal amount of short positions to balance out your longs. Or any other type of hedge if u continue using margin.
Thank you for the comment and advice. What would you say are the best ETFs to short at this point? Which ETFs is made up mostly of the biggest tariff/recession losers?
I just try to short individual names that are fundamental bad like $GPRO $DDD $HTZ $OPI $WEST , ,